One of the most intriguing congressional races in the country is occurring in San Francisco. It may not look that way from a partisan perspective as all three of the leading candidates are Democrats, but the race offers a view into the future of the Democratic Party and that of the city of San Francisco. Three candidates Saikat Chakrabarti, Connie Chan and Scott Wiener have a real chance of winning. A fourth, Marie Hurabiell, is a conservative gadfly who cannot win, but might play an interesting spoiler role.

To date, Wiener has raised $2.8 million compared to Chakrabarti’s $1.8 million (much of it from his personal fortune. Chan has raised $300,000.

The race is notable because each of the major candidates is trying to craft a coalition that goes, in part, beyond left-right politics. To understand each candidate’s path to victory, it is essential to focus not just on national politics, where all three leading candidates are running solidly anti-Trump campaigns, but instead on the local politics of San Francisco. 

Wiener, seeking to become the first LGBTQ member of Congress from San Francisco, is, in the context of California and San Francisco, the most conservative candidate in the race. He is a hard-working and smart legislator who has long had strong ties to moneyed interests, particularly in the real estate and developer community. Accordingly Wiener’s winning coalition will have to bring together centrist and conservative voters along with a big proportion of the city’s sizable LGBTQ vote to win.

Chakrabarti is a fascinating candidate in that he was a relative unknown in San Francisco as recently as a year ago but, due to his very deep pockets and performative radicalism, has made himself a contender in this race. Chakrabarti, who is 40-years-old, has presented himself to the voters as the face of young, progressive reform. He has been outspoken in his criticism of the Trump regime and has taken standard left-wing positions on everything from ICE to Gaza, but there is more to him than that.

Chakrabarti has staked much of his campaign on his brief time working with New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), and Vermont Senator, and erstwhile presidential candidate, Bernie Sanders. AOC and Sanders are both icons on the American left, but, with regards to AOC, Chakrabarti too frequently comes off as the brash rich guy taking credit for the work of the young woman of color.

Significantly, although AOC and Sanders have frequently become involved in congressional primaries-for example Sanders has endorsed Brad Lander in his race for Congress against Democratic incumbent Dan Goldman-neither have endorsed Chakrabarti. "Although AOC and Sanders have frequently become involved in congressional primaries (for example Sanders has endorsed Brad Lander in his race for Congress against Democratic incumbent Dan Goldman) significantly, neither have endorsed Chakrabarti.

When it comes to San Francisco,Chakrabarti, who made a fortune in tech before discovering his progressive passion, is not the progressive leader he claims to be. As recently as 2024, he supported Bilal Mahmood for Supervisor and Daniel Lurie for Mayor over progressive standard-bearers Dean Preston and Aaron Peskin respectively. In San Francisco, you can either call yourself a progressive or support conservative (moderate in the vernacular of San Francisco) candidates like Mahmood and Lurie, but you cannot do both.

Unsurprisingly, Chakrabarti, despite his ample resources, has gotten virtually no support from progressive institutions or influential progressive individuals in San Francisco. This leaves Chakrabarti with the task of building a coalition that brings together voters who are progressive on national issues, but who pay little attention to local issues, along with the tech workers who may see Chakrabarti as the face of younger and newer San Francisco.

One of the reasons Chakrabarti has struggled in the progressive lane is the presence in the race of Connie Chan, a genuine progressive with deeper roots in the city than any of the other candidates. Chan, who is 47-years-old, immigrated to the city when she was 13 and has lived in San Francisco since then. 

Unlike Chakrabarti, who is a political neophyte, Chan is an experienced legislator who is viewed by many as something of a policy wonk, particularly in matters relating to budgeting. Chan has already won endorsements from much of organized labor, numerous San Francisco progressives including Peskin, Preston, Art Agnos, Chayenne Chen, Tom Ammiano, and others, as well as national figures including Senator Adam Schiff and several members of Congress including Judy Chu and Norma Torres.

Chan’s road to Congress requires her to consolidate the progressive vote despite Chakrabarti’s aggressive and expensive campaign, and then to do well with San Francisco’s sizable Chinese American vote as she seeks to become the first Chinese American to represent the city in Congress. Chan is also the only woman running in a race to succeed a legendary female politician. San Franciscans are used to having a strong woman as their representative in Congress, and Chan is seeking to follow in the footsteps of Nancy Pelosi and Pelosi’s immediate predecessor Sala Burton in that role.

This race is a product of the unique demographics and politics of San Francisco, but it is also a microcosm of the debates within the Democratic Party.